Step 2: tool results

get_claim

{
  "include": [
    "arguments",
    "subclaims",
    "related"
  ],
  "claim_id": "73fad761-cd72-4aaf-9484-39da8c3558c1"
}

{"claim":{"id":"73fad761-cd72-4aaf-9484-39da8c3558c1","kind":"claim","canonical_form":"Dated frontier-AI forecast intervals often omit uncertainty from instrument, protocol, and data provenance choices.","claim_type":"evaluative","state":"active","decomposition_status":"complete","importance":0.6,"contestation":0.5,"domains":[],"tags":[{"slug":"ai-development-forecasting","name":"AI Development Forecasting"},{"slug":"statistical-uncertainty-analysis","name":"Statistical Uncertainty Analysis"}],"steward_state":"running","stewarded_at":"2026-11-14T02:36:15.886Z","canonical_direction_note":"The claim states the affirmative methodological concern that reported forecast intervals commonly fail to include uncertainty from choices affecting measurements and sources.","created_at":"2026-11-13T23:52:44.613Z","updated_at":"2026-11-14T02:35:16.401Z","page_url":"https://minerval.ai/claims/73fad761-cd72-4aaf-9484-39da8c3558c1"},"assessment":null,"coverage":{"examined":false,"on":[],"note":"No judgment of this node is in force. That is not a finding either way."},"quantity":null,"threshold_of":null,"question":null,"formalization":null,"formalization_pending":null,"formalization_history":[],"verification":null,"lean_checks":[],"lean_checks_total":0,"waiting_messages":[{"trigger":"structure_and_assess","from":"the system","sender_node_id":null,"sent_at":"2026-11-13T23:52:44.980Z","paid":false,"summary":"New claim onboarded. Give it the structure and assessment its importance warrants; a minor or settled claim may need no decomposition."},{"trigger":"mandate_plan","from":"a mandate's plan","sender_node_id":null,"sent_at":"2026-11-14T02:35:16.403Z","paid":true,"summary":"A funded mandate scheduled a assess pass on this claim."}],"requests":[],"requests_total":0,"subclaim_count":0,"instance_count":1,"source_map":null,"subclaims":[],"subclaims_assessed":0,"related":[],"arguments":[],"unplaced_argument_passages":[{"instance_id":"1f0e1d0a-cac5-4b8e-844d-6ca511fe5ecc","source":{"id":"0a99fd17-2b29-45c8-9ab6-6afe1fdbc286","url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2608.14903","title":"Frontier AI Forecasting Has a Measurement Problem: An Audit of Progress Evidence"},"verbatim_text":"Frontier AI is being forecast without a common ruler. In the audited public record, the resource and capability tables meet on seven systems; missing compute is structured by access regime and time; benchmark versions can change scale; the diagnosis depends on the chosen link; and most substantive measurements come from one programme.","context":"Conclusion summarizing the audit findings","stance":"advances","direction":"for"}],"unplaced_argument_passages_total":1}