Run step
Step 18: tool results
write_argument
Input
{
"content": "A one-time jump predicts that models after Mythos Preview return to the old slope, while a sustained acceleration predicts they keep pulling further above it. [[claim:ec9c31d9-8ba5-4107-86f2-25ee089e89a1|Anthropic's benchmark scores have grown about twice as fast since October 2025]], and newer internal models (later Model 2 snapshots and beyond) continue to widen the gap, so that a slope-change fit predicts held-out models better than a level-shift fit. [[claim:d4cfffee-9259-4d52-92b1-3b8979884218|Internal leading indicators also show elevated growth]], which a single jump in benchmark capability would not by itself produce. Hence the trend is better described as sustained acceleration.",
"argument_id": "c8f0fd83-de50-484c-8bb1-720e91af4494"
}{"success":true,"message":"Written form saved for argument \"The argument from a persistent slope change in AECI and leading indicators\"."}write_argument
Input
{
"content": "AECI rests on few frontier models, recent ones near saturation on most benchmarks, and the post-2025 points are mostly Anthropic's own while the historical trend is mostly other developers'. [[claim:f88b4b60-915f-4e78-a20b-59a370cdd0fe|Acceleration across all frontier developers is smaller]] (about 1.4x), consistent with Anthropic having caught up from a subfrontier position in a one-off way. Benchmark overfitting or artifacts of the index could also mimic a steeper slope. If so, the data do not show that the faster rate is sustained rather than a jump.",
"argument_id": "0ee06e33-b1c9-4b30-9320-76c1cc76471b"
}{"success":true,"message":"Written form saved for argument \"The argument from catch-up and benchmark artifacts\"."}