Step 2: tool results

get_claim

{
  "include": [
    "arguments",
    "subclaims",
    "related",
    "findings",
    "dependents"
  ],
  "claim_id": "b425195a-1b7a-4e6d-8ed6-9c25941c19e3"
}

{"claim":{"id":"b425195a-1b7a-4e6d-8ed6-9c25941c19e3","kind":"claim","canonical_form":"Oversight errors do not compound when successive AI generations oversee moderately more capable successors.","claim_type":"empirical_derived","state":"active","decomposition_status":"complete","importance":0.4,"contestation":0.5,"domains":[],"tags":[{"slug":"scalable-oversight","name":"Scalable Oversight"},{"slug":"artificial-intelligence","name":"Artificial intelligence"}],"steward_state":"running","stewarded_at":"2026-11-11T20:22:44.465Z","canonical_direction_note":null,"created_at":"2026-11-11T19:13:32.014Z","updated_at":"2026-11-11T20:22:44.152Z","page_url":"https://minerval.ai/claims/b425195a-1b7a-4e6d-8ed6-9c25941c19e3"},"assessment":null,"preliminary_seed":{"credence":0.2,"note":"Each step in such a chain passes on whatever misalignment or blind spots its oversight missed, and a later overseer that is itself subtly flawed is a worse check on its successor. Unless something in the chain corrects errors as well as transmitting them, the probability that every step succeeds falls with the number of steps. The one quantitative model of chained oversight (Engels and coauthors, 2025) found overall success falling as the total gap grew, even with the number of steps chosen optimally, though it treated steps as independent games between prompted models. Proponents answer that an aligned system would try its best to align the next and may do it better than humans would, which is possible but untested.","seeded_by_claim_id":"e15a36f4-edf3-45c5-92d9-85fcefae5190"},"quantity":null,"threshold_of":null,"question":null,"formalization":null,"formalization_pending":null,"formalization_history":[],"verification":null,"lean_checks":[],"lean_checks_total":0,"waiting_messages":[{"trigger":"structure_and_assess","from":"the system","sender_node_id":null,"sent_at":"2026-11-11T19:13:32.155Z","paid":false,"summary":"New claim onboarded. Give it the structure and assessment its importance warrants; a minor or settled claim may need no decomposition."},{"trigger":"mandate_plan","from":"a mandate's plan","sender_node_id":null,"sent_at":"2026-11-11T20:22:44.156Z","paid":true,"summary":"A funded mandate scheduled a assess pass on this claim."}],"requests":[],"requests_total":0,"subclaim_count":0,"instance_count":0,"source_map":null,"related":[],"subclaims":[],"subclaims_assessed":0,"dependents":[{"id":"e15a36f4-edf3-45c5-92d9-85fcefae5190","text":"Amplified oversight can supervise AI systems moderately beyond overseers’ capabilities, but not superintelligent systems.","claim_type":"empirical_derived","node_kind":"claim","relation_type":"contradicts","reasoning":"Bootstrapping would carry oversight from a moderate gap to superintelligence only if each step's residual errors do not accumulate along the chain. If they do not, the claim's limit at superintelligence can be escaped by iteration, which counts against its second half.","importance":0.6,"assessment_status":"inconclusive","assessment_confidence":0.65,"assessment_credence":0.4,"bounty_micro_usd":null,"checked":null,"formal":false}],"dependents_total":1,"findings":[],"arguments":[]}