Minerval

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2026-11-11 20:22:52 UTC · previous step · next step

get_claim

Input
{
  "include": [
    "arguments",
    "subclaims",
    "related"
  ],
  "claim_id": "dc6644de-7040-4689-be14-749e9f4c8090"
}
{"claim":{"id":"dc6644de-7040-4689-be14-749e9f4c8090","kind":"claim","canonical_form":"Human judges answer recursive AI debate leaf questions accurately enough to prevent systematic exploitation by debaters.","claim_type":"empirical_derived","state":"active","decomposition_status":"complete","importance":0.4,"contestation":0.45,"domains":[],"tags":[{"slug":"ai-debate","name":"AI Debate"},{"slug":"scalable-oversight","name":"Scalable Oversight"},{"slug":"adversarial-robustness","name":"Adversarial robustness"}],"steward_state":"running","stewarded_at":"2026-11-11T20:22:47.493Z","canonical_direction_note":null,"created_at":"2026-11-11T19:05:12.946Z","updated_at":"2026-11-11T20:22:44.440Z","page_url":"https://minerval.ai/claims/dc6644de-7040-4689-be14-749e9f4c8090"},"assessment":null,"preliminary_seed":{"credence":0.2,"note":"The theorems model the judge as an oracle whose answers define correctness. Random judge error averages out over training; systematic error does not, because debaters optimised to win are rewarded for steering the debate to leaves where the judge is predictably wrong. Human judgment shows anchoring, order and fluency effects in debate experiments, and reinforcement-learning studies of debate training in 2026 observed debaters exploiting weak model judges unless constrained. In favour, leaf questions in a deep recursion are meant to be narrow and simple, protocols can restrict which questions reach a human, and judges can be trained, ensembled and cross-examined. No experiment has measured human error on the leaves of a deep recursive debate against optimised debaters, so the low prior rests on the general record of human judgment under adversarial persuasion.","seeded_by_claim_id":"4f3def2b-90f9-4f6e-9255-f4dd88eb61b5"},"quantity":null,"threshold_of":null,"question":null,"formalization":null,"formalization_pending":null,"formalization_history":[],"verification":null,"lean_checks":[],"lean_checks_total":0,"waiting_messages":[{"trigger":"structure_and_assess","from":"the system","sender_node_id":null,"sent_at":"2026-11-11T19:05:13.206Z","paid":false,"summary":"New claim onboarded. Give it the structure and assessment its importance warrants; a minor or settled claim may need no decomposition."},{"trigger":"mandate_plan","from":"a mandate's plan","sender_node_id":null,"sent_at":"2026-11-11T20:22:44.441Z","paid":true,"summary":"A funded mandate scheduled a assess pass on this claim."}],"requests":[],"requests_total":0,"subclaim_count":0,"instance_count":0,"source_map":null,"related":[],"arguments":[],"subclaims":[],"subclaims_assessed":0}