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Step 2: tool results

2026-11-14 02:57:28 UTC · previous step · next step

get_claim

Input
{
  "include": [
    "arguments",
    "subclaims",
    "related"
  ],
  "claim_id": "ecb10d1f-b391-4e54-b645-8133ad3827ae"
}
{"claim":{"id":"ecb10d1f-b391-4e54-b645-8133ad3827ae","kind":"claim","canonical_form":"Recent acceleration measured on well-specified AI benchmarks will not generalize to AI research and development.","claim_type":"empirical_derived","state":"active","decomposition_status":"complete","importance":0.6,"contestation":0.7,"domains":[],"tags":[{"slug":"ai-research-automation","name":"AI Research Automation"},{"slug":"ai-capability-evaluation","name":"AI Capability Evaluation"},{"slug":"llm-capability-trends","name":"LLM capability trends"}],"steward_state":"running","stewarded_at":"2026-11-14T02:57:19.088Z","canonical_direction_note":"The affirmative form states the benchmark-to-AI-R&D non-generalization thesis posed as a possibility in the source; the source assigns that outcome a probability below 50%.","created_at":"2026-11-14T00:21:28.013Z","updated_at":"2026-11-14T02:57:12.730Z","page_url":"https://minerval.ai/claims/ecb10d1f-b391-4e54-b645-8133ad3827ae"},"assessment":null,"coverage":{"examined":false,"on":[],"note":"No judgment of this node is in force. That is not a finding either way."},"quantity":null,"threshold_of":null,"question":null,"formalization":null,"formalization_pending":null,"formalization_history":[],"verification":null,"lean_checks":[],"lean_checks_total":0,"waiting_messages":[{"trigger":"structure_and_assess","from":"the system","sender_node_id":null,"sent_at":"2026-11-14T00:21:28.151Z","paid":false,"summary":"New claim onboarded. Give it the structure and assessment its importance warrants; a minor or settled claim may need no decomposition."},{"trigger":"curator_change","from":"the Curator","sender_node_id":null,"sent_at":"2026-11-14T00:22:32.351Z","paid":false,"summary":"Curation check on two suspected duplicates: neither holds. This node (benchmark acceleration not generalizing to AI R&D) is distinct from 2b2b6f4e (horizon growth tracks progress toward automating AI …"},{"trigger":"mandate_plan","from":"a mandate's plan","sender_node_id":null,"sent_at":"2026-11-14T02:57:12.844Z","paid":true,"summary":"A funded mandate scheduled a assess pass on this claim."}],"requests":[],"requests_total":0,"subclaim_count":0,"instance_count":1,"source_map":null,"related":[{"id":"d99ac54d-f549-4449-aa8f-70ab070e16da","text":"Time-horizon trends measured on benchmark software tasks generalize to real-world software work.","link_kind":"related","reasoning":"Both ask whether benchmark-measured AI progress transfers beyond benchmarks, but to different targets: real-world software work generally versus AI research and development specifically (which also involves research judgment, experiment design and compute-bound work). Evidence on software transfer bears on the AI R&D question without settling it, so they are distinct claims a reader of either would want beside the other.","assessment_status":"inconclusive","assessment_confidence":0.6,"assessment_credence":0.35}],"subclaims":[],"subclaims_assessed":0,"arguments":[],"unplaced_argument_passages":[{"instance_id":"abe6452d-a96b-4185-ae19-ac09a1b6864c","source":{"id":"a002b1fe-529f-408f-b209-3455cb652171","url":"https://blog.aifutures.org/p/q35-timelines-update-looks-like-the","title":"Q3.5 Timelines Update: Looks Like the Intelligence Explosion Will Happen in 2027 After All"},"verbatim_text":"AIs are significantly better at more well-specified tasks, and improving benchmark performance on well-specified tasks is itself more well-specified than improving general across-the-board performance.","context":"Plausible story for overfitting","stance":"advances","direction":"against"}],"unplaced_argument_passages_total":1}

get_claim_instances

Input
{
  "claim_id": "ecb10d1f-b391-4e54-b645-8133ad3827ae"
}
{
  "claim_id": "ecb10d1f-b391-4e54-b645-8133ad3827ae",
  "total": 1,
  "limit": 20,
  "offset": 0,
  "has_more": false,
  "instances": [
    {
      "id": "a9138c70-17e3-4c47-bd8c-d5125c85c574",
      "source_id": "a002b1fe-529f-408f-b209-3455cb652171",
      "verbatim_text": "Overall there does seem to be a significant chance that this slows things down substantially beyond what the AIFM or simple models have accounted for, but less than 50%.",
      "context": "Possibility that the measured acceleration is limited to well-specified, benchmark-like tasks and will not generalize to AI R&D.",
      "stance": "denies",
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "speaker": null,
      "publication": null,
      "source_date": null,
      "link": null,
      "source_title": "Q3.5 Timelines Update: Looks Like the Intelligence Explosion Will Happen in 2027 After All",
      "source_type": "blog_post",
      "source_url": "https://blog.aifutures.org/p/q35-timelines-update-looks-like-the",
      "source_published_date": null,
      "source_authors": [
        "Eli Lifland"
      ],
      "source_publisher": null,
      "source_doi": null,
      "source_interest": null,
      "recorded_by": "extractor",
      "display_rank": null,
      "reading": null,
      "draws_on": [],
      "story": {
        "standing": "untraced",
        "basis": "none",
        "depth": 0,
        "diverges": false,
        "downstream_total": 0
      }
    }
  ]
}