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Step 22: tool results

2026-11-14 02:38:19 UTC · previous step · next step

evaluate_argument

Input

{
  "verdict": "slight",
  "decisive": false,
  "evaluation": "Granting its premises, the argument shows that AI assistance is the main cause of the acceleration in late 2026. It does not show the same for the whole period since October 2025, because the instantaneous share ([[claim:76cf8c84-c5ec-4277-9539-38e03f8e1a07]]) is expected to exceed the cumulative share, by an amount METR's redacted estimates would state. It also rests on METR's reliability on evidence the public cannot see. On the claim as worded it moves the case only somewhat.",
  "argument_id": "5098726f-3e4a-4cf9-b001-6250a926741b"
}

{"success":true,"message":"Evaluation recorded for argument \"The argument from METR's attribution estimate\": slight."}

evaluate_argument

Input

{
  "verdict": "slight",
  "decisive": false,
  "evaluation": "Granting that [[claim:c175bbcd-10be-4d49-89a0-61fe742c0d29]] holds and that some catch-up occurred, the cumulative AI share is pulled below the roughly 80% current figure. The argument does not show that it falls below half: that depends on how large the late-2025 non-AI contribution was relative to the later AI-driven acceleration, and the figures that would show this were redacted.",
  "argument_id": "92c6f2ee-cbf4-403b-8b5d-411e242e826b"
}

{"success":true,"message":"Evaluation recorded for argument \"The argument from non-AI causes early in the period\": slight."}

set_claim_importance

Input

{
  "claim_id": "e4cbf66e-fd61-4ae6-8247-19b9b2fa87c9",
  "reasoning": "Unchanged. This is a live crux in the debate on recursive AI R&D acceleration, and it rests on one partly redacted report.",
  "importance": 0.55,
  "contestation": 0.6
}

{"success":true,"message":"Importance of claim e4cbf66e-fd61-4ae6-8247-19b9b2fa87c9 set to 0.55. Contestation recorded as 0.6."}

log_stewardship_decision

Input

{
  "claim_id": "e4cbf66e-fd61-4ae6-8247-19b9b2fa87c9",
  "reasoning": "Read the METR report directly; the earlier pass had relied on a summary. Corrected the instance passage to the report's attribution sentence. Added structure: the acceleration subclaim (assumes), the October 2026 attribution-share quantity (supports), and the non-AI late-2025 factors claim (contradicts), with for and against arguments. Placed the unplaced passage as a mention. Verdict unchanged at inconclusive with credence 0.5; confidence raised to 0.65 and marginal yield lowered to 0.3, because the decisive evidence is redacted. No dependents need notifying, since the verdict did not change.",
  "action_taken": "reassessed"
}

{"success":true,"message":"Stewardship decision logged for claim e4cbf66e-fd61-4ae6-8247-19b9b2fa87c9: reassessed","action":"reassessed","reasoning":"Read the METR report directly; the earlier pass had relied on a summary. Corrected the instance passage to the report's attribution sentence. Added structure: the acceleration subclaim (assumes), the October 2026 attribution-share quantity (supports), and the non-AI late-2025 factors claim (contradicts), with for and against arguments. Placed the unplaced passage as a mention. Verdict unchanged at inconclusive with credence 0.5; confidence raised to 0.65 and marginal yield lowered to 0.3, because the decisive evidence is redacted. No dependents need notifying, since the verdict did not change."}

answer_messages

Input

{
  "answers": [
    {
      "note": "Reassessed after a direct reading of the METR report. Added structure and arguments and corrected the instance. Verdict still inconclusive at credence 0.5; confidence raised to 0.65.",
      "message": "m1",
      "outcome": "changed"
    }
  ]
}

{"success":true,"message":"Recorded 1 answer(s); 0 reached their senders as replies."}