Step 13: assistant

thinking

Calls petition_mandate

{
  "why": "Reading the originals whole (METR assessment, OpenAI statement, FRI synthesis, Anthropic report, AI Futures update, Clark's October post) made the context large, so each remaining turn costs about $0.4; about $2.3 is left, which covers the structure and assessment but leaves no room for the two remaining originals or provenance records.",
  "kind": "more_budget",
  "owls": 2,
  "plan": "Finish the rebuild: attach about ten premises under four arguments, write and evaluate the arguments, record the new assessment, and read two originals not yet opened in this pass (Jack Clark's May 2026 forecast with its stated odds, and the forecast table and caveats section of the AI Futures Q3.5 update), then record provenance readings.",
  "if_refused": "Record the structure and assessment on what has been read, stating that Clark's May odds and the AI Futures forecast table were not opened first-hand, with marginal yield set accordingly.",
  "done_so_far": "Read first-hand: OpenAI's 6 Sept 2026 statement (archive copy, whole), METR's Nov 2026 Anthropic assessment (summary and conclusions), FRI's Nov 2026 synthesis (whole), AI Futures Q3.5 update (summary sections), Clark's Oct 2026 post, Anthropic's 'When AI builds itself' (first third), abstracts of the long-horizon agent study and the time-horizon statistical critique; and the neighbouring judgments on present capability, the stall hypothesis, weeks-long tasks and the superhuman-researcher date. Four arguments and their premises are identified; verdict is forming at roughly one in four."
}

Calls add_argument

{
  "name": "The argument from accelerating capability trends",
  "stance": "for",
  "claim_id": "54c25eab-5263-467c-880b-ee0f2c3bdd12",
  "description": "Extrapolating measured task-length growth and the reported acceleration of progress at Anthropic through 2027 reaches research-scale autonomous work before the deadline."
}

Calls add_argument

{
  "name": "The argument from forecasts of stronger milestones in 2027",
  "stance": "for",
  "claim_id": "54c25eab-5263-467c-880b-ee0f2c3bdd12",
  "description": "Forecasters with inside or modelling knowledge place milestones that entail this capability (a superhuman AI researcher, a model able to train its successor) in 2027."
}

Calls add_argument

{
  "name": "The argument from the present gap in open-ended research",
  "stance": "against",
  "claim_id": "54c25eab-5263-467c-880b-ee0f2c3bdd12",
  "description": "Late-2026 systems still fail at judgment-dependent stages of open-ended research, the measured gains are on well-specified tasks, and thirteen months is short for closing a gap of that kind completely."
}

Calls add_argument

{
  "name": "The argument from the labs' own schedules and pacing",
  "stance": "against",
  "claim_id": "54c25eab-5263-467c-880b-ee0f2c3bdd12",
  "description": "The two labs' own statements place the capability after 2027 or decline to claim it, and both have slowed or committed to slow development when safety requires."
}

Calls record_claim_instance

{
  "url": "https://jack-clark.net/2026/10/12/import-ai-476-creativity-and-rsi-worse-than-china-open-weight-models-ai-goes-to-space/",
  "title": "Import AI 476: Creativity and RSI; worse-than-China open weight models; AI goes to space",
  "stance": "affirms",
  "context": "Comment on the TasteVal benchmark of experimental research taste. Clark, an Anthropic co-founder, forecasts a stronger milestone (full recursive self-improvement becoming possible) as more likely in 2027 than 2028; no numerical odds are given. The stronger milestone would entail the capability this claim describes.",
  "speaker": "Jack Clark",
  "claim_id": "54c25eab-5263-467c-880b-ee0f2c3bdd12",
  "confidence": 0.6,
  "publication": "Import AI",
  "source_date": "2026-10-12",
  "source_kind": "blog_post",
  "verbatim_text": "I now think it’s more likely we’ll see full RSI become possible in 2027, whereas before I thought it was more likely in 2028."
}

Calls record_claim_instance

{
  "url": "https://blog.aifutures.org/p/q35-timelines-update-looks-like-the",
  "title": "Q3.5 Timelines Update: Looks Like the Intelligence Explosion Will Happen in 2027 After All",
  "stance": "affirms",
  "context": "A conditional forecast of a stronger milestone at the leading company (an AI a company would prefer to its whole human research staff), made after METR's estimate of acceleration at Anthropic. It is conditional on no deliberate slowdown and is not restricted to Anthropic or OpenAI, though it rests on Anthropic data.",
  "speaker": "AI Futures Project (Eli Lifland, Brendan Halstead, Daniel Kokotajlo and others)",
  "claim_id": "54c25eab-5263-467c-880b-ee0f2c3bdd12",
  "confidence": 0.6,
  "publication": "AI Futures Project blog",
  "source_date": "2026-11-10",
  "source_kind": "blog_post",
  "verbatim_text": "Now, all of us forecast that Superhuman AI Researcher (SAR) will likely arrive at some point in 2027 (assuming no substantial deliberate slowdown)."
}

Calls record_claim_instance

{
  "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/2026/https://openai.com/index/research-acceleration-view-inside-openai/",
  "title": "Research acceleration: The view inside OpenAI",
  "stance": "mentions",
  "context": "OpenAI's own account of research acceleration. It reports reaching an automated research intern (well-defined tasks of a few days under human direction) and gives March 2028, three months after this claim's deadline, as its goal for an automated AI researcher. It adds that people still set priorities and judge which ideas and results to pursue, and that agents need significant human steering as task complexity rises.",
  "speaker": "OpenAI",
  "claim_id": "54c25eab-5263-467c-880b-ee0f2c3bdd12",
  "publication": "OpenAI",
  "source_date": "2026-09-06",
  "source_kind": "report",
  "verbatim_text": "We are making strong progress toward creating an automated AI researcher by March of 2028."
}

Calls update_claim_instance

{
  "stance": "mentions",
  "claim_id": "54c25eab-5263-467c-880b-ee0f2c3bdd12",
  "reasoning": "This is news coverage repeating Clark's 12 October 2026 post, which has now been read and recorded in its own right as Clark's statement. The coverage adds no evidence and should not count as a second voice affirming the claim.",
  "instance_id": "e3a13307-e488-43b8-8d66-f0dd27bc2035"
}