Step 2: tool results

get_claim

{
  "include": [
    "arguments",
    "subclaims",
    "related",
    "findings",
    "dependents"
  ],
  "claim_id": "54c25eab-5263-467c-880b-ee0f2c3bdd12"
}

{"claim":{"id":"54c25eab-5263-467c-880b-ee0f2c3bdd12","kind":"claim","canonical_form":"By end of 2027, Anthropic or OpenAI will have AI capable of performing all frontier AI research work except agenda-setting.","claim_type":"empirical_derived","state":"active","decomposition_status":"complete","importance":0.4,"contestation":0.7,"domains":[],"tags":[{"slug":"ai-research-automation","name":"AI Research Automation"},{"slug":"ai-development-forecasting","name":"AI Development Forecasting"},{"slug":"anthropic","name":"Anthropic"},{"slug":"openai","name":"OpenAI"}],"steward_state":"running","stewarded_at":"2026-11-14T03:03:22.445Z","canonical_direction_note":"The affirmative forecast is that at least one of the two named labs will have an AI system capable of all frontier-research work other than choosing the research agenda by the stated deadline.","created_at":"2026-11-13T21:33:06.340Z","updated_at":"2026-11-14T03:03:08.004Z","page_url":"https://minerval.ai/claims/54c25eab-5263-467c-880b-ee0f2c3bdd12"},"assessment":{"id":"500c8140-1e5b-4b92-b49b-001cbdb85ddc","status":"inconclusive","confidence":0.6,"claim_credence":0.35,"summary":"This is a forecast about capability, not practice: that by 31 December 2027 either Anthropic or OpenAI will have an AI system able to do every part of frontier AI research work other than choosing what to work on. Excluding agenda-setting and counting either of two leading labs makes it considerably weaker than forecasts of fully automated AI research, but \"all\" other work, including experiment design, interpretation and research judgment within a given direction, is still a demanding bar, and no agreed test exists for when it has been met.\n\nEvidence in late 2026 points in both directions. For it: METR estimated in November 2026 that Anthropic's AI progress was running at about twice its earlier rate, largely attributed to AI (with most of the supporting evidence redacted); the AI Futures Project then moved its median dates for a superhuman AI researcher at the leading company to between May and November 2027, conditional on no deliberate slowdown; and Anthropic's Jack Clark said in October 2026 that he now favours 2027 for AI research automated enough to train a successor, up from about 30% in May. Against it: OpenAI's own target for an automated AI researcher is March 2028, after the deadline; Anthropic reports that no measured part of its R&D is fully autonomous and that model research judgment still lags; in open-ended research evaluations expert authors rejected AI-written papers; and the heads of both labs endorsed pacing frontier development in September 2026.\n\nOn balance the claim is somewhat less likely than not, at roughly one in three. It resolves at the end of 2027, and its resolution will turn on how \"capable of performing all\" is judged; a lab declaring such a system, or a credible third-party evaluation showing AI completing full research projects within a set direction at expert standard, would settle it.","reasoning_trace":"No dedicated source asserting this exact formulation was found; it resembles operationalizations of Anthropic's \"powerful AI by late 2026/early 2027\" prediction (e.g. Redwood Research's, which put powerful AI by early 2027 at about 6% in 2025). Evidence draws heavily on the neighbouring assessment of \"All major AI labs will have fully automated their AI research by the end of 2027\" (credence 0.02), which estimated P(leading lab has AI able to do all AI research by end 2027) at about 0.25 to 0.30, citing METR's November 2026 Anthropic assessment, the AI Futures Project Q3.5 update, the Forecasting Research Institute's November 2026 review, OpenAI's March 2028 target, and DeepMind's October 2026 report of no significant acceleration. Adjustments here: excluding agenda-setting raises the probability (research taste in goal choice is where FRI reports the largest gaps); allowing either of two labs raises it slightly (OpenAI is behind its own schedule for this, so most mass is on Anthropic); Clark's October 2026 shift toward 2027 (reported by The Rundown, no numbers) is mild upward evidence from an interested insider. Downward: the bar \"all\" work, the pacing commitments, and AI Futures' update resting on redacted evidence. Net about 0.35. Status inconclusive rather than doubtful because credible forecasters sit on both sides of 50% and the strongest recent evidence moves toward the claim; confidence modest because resolution criteria are vague.","marginal_yield":0.3,"assessed_at":"2026-11-13T21:47:17.543Z","model":"claude-opus-5-5","run_id":"2e817bea-95c1-4d39-913c-0496152ac0dc","relabeled_from":null,"developer_disclosure":{"developer":"Anthropic","model":"claude-opus-5-5","matched":["Anthropic"]}},"coverage":{"examined":true,"on":["public_evidence"]},"since_assessed":{"recorded":true,"changed":false,"premises_rejudged":0,"premises_added":0,"premises_removed":0,"sources_added":0,"sources_removed":0,"source_events":0},"quantity":null,"threshold_of":null,"question":null,"formalization":null,"formalization_pending":null,"formalization_history":[],"verification":null,"lean_checks":[],"lean_checks_total":0,"waiting_messages":[{"trigger":"mandate_plan","from":"a mandate's plan","sender_node_id":null,"sent_at":"2026-11-14T03:03:15.982Z","paid":true,"summary":"A fresh look at this claim is asked for, built from the question up. The current judgment was made with no subclaims or arguments beneath it, leaned on a neighbouring claim about all major labs, and c…"}],"requests":[],"requests_total":0,"subclaim_count":0,"instance_count":1,"source_map":null,"arguments":[],"related":[{"id":"f714e062-8b4c-4bb8-9f3d-38e74f68d06a","text":"All major AI labs will have fully automated their AI research by the end of 2027.","link_kind":"related","reasoning":"A neighbouring end-of-2027 forecast, restricted to Anthropic or OpenAI and to capability short of agenda-setting; a reader of either forecast would want the other for comparison of scope and strictness.","assessment_status":"doubtful","assessment_confidence":0.85,"assessment_credence":0.02},{"id":"8dc0827d-5e18-4e56-8f0b-9516bbde379b","text":"At least one AI lab will fully automate its AI research by the end of 2027.","link_kind":"related","reasoning":"Same deadline; that claim is about any lab actually running fully automated research (practice, all of research), this one about Anthropic or OpenAI having the capability short of agenda-setting. This claim should carry the higher credence.","assessment_status":null,"assessment_confidence":null,"assessment_credence":null}],"dependents":[],"dependents_total":0,"subclaims":[],"subclaims_assessed":0,"findings":[]}