Step 2: tool results

get_claim

{
  "include": [
    "arguments",
    "subclaims",
    "dependents"
  ],
  "claim_id": "d479cf4d-52b6-4260-a3dc-7a2e5a812d42"
}

{"claim":{"id":"d479cf4d-52b6-4260-a3dc-7a2e5a812d42","kind":"claim","canonical_form":"As of late 2026, humans supply most research judgment in frontier AI R&D.","claim_type":"empirical_derived","state":"active","decomposition_status":"complete","importance":0.6,"contestation":0.5,"domains":[],"tags":[{"slug":"ai-research-automation","name":"AI Research Automation"},{"slug":"artificial-intelligence","name":"Artificial intelligence"}],"steward_state":"running","stewarded_at":"2026-11-14T04:53:23.838Z","canonical_direction_note":"The source advances the affirmative present-tense claim that human researchers still provide the majority of judgment in frontier AI research and development.","created_at":"2026-11-14T02:36:41.216Z","updated_at":"2026-11-14T04:53:23.250Z","page_url":"https://minerval.ai/claims/d479cf4d-52b6-4260-a3dc-7a2e5a812d42"},"assessment":null,"coverage":{"examined":false,"on":[],"note":"No judgment of this node is in force. That is not a finding either way."},"quantity":null,"threshold_of":null,"question":null,"formalization":null,"formalization_pending":null,"formalization_history":[],"verification":null,"lean_checks":[],"lean_checks_total":0,"waiting_messages":[{"trigger":"structure_and_assess","from":"the system","sender_node_id":null,"sent_at":"2026-11-14T02:36:41.331Z","paid":false,"summary":"New claim onboarded. Give it the structure and assessment its importance warrants; a minor or settled claim may need no decomposition."},{"trigger":"mandate_plan","from":"a mandate's plan","sender_node_id":null,"sent_at":"2026-11-14T04:53:23.463Z","paid":true,"summary":"A funded mandate scheduled a assess pass on this claim."}],"requests":[],"requests_total":0,"subclaim_count":0,"instance_count":1,"source_map":null,"subclaims":[],"subclaims_assessed":0,"dependents":[{"id":"55f89371-8a43-43c1-8dd7-932c350ca7fb","text":"By the end of 2027, a frontier AI model will autonomously train a successor version of itself.","claim_type":"empirical_verifiable","node_kind":"claim","relation_type":"contradicts","reasoning":"If humans still supply most research judgment in late 2026, end-to-end autonomous successor training within about thirteen months requires a rapid closing of that gap.","importance":0.7,"assessment_status":"doubtful","assessment_confidence":0.65,"assessment_credence":0.12,"bounty_micro_usd":null,"checked":null,"formal":false},{"id":"55b84cc2-c3ba-4168-ae4b-723dafc6b353","text":"Weak research judgment in AI systems will slow automation of the remaining AI R&D tasks below current-trend extrapolations.","claim_type":"causal","node_kind":"claim","relation_type":"supports","reasoning":"That humans still supply most research judgment in frontier AI R&D is the observed form of the bottleneck the claim predicts will persist.","importance":0.65,"assessment_status":"inconclusive","assessment_confidence":0.65,"assessment_credence":0.6,"bounty_micro_usd":null,"checked":null,"formal":false}],"dependents_total":2,"arguments":[],"unplaced_argument_passages":[{"instance_id":"963e2b1e-ecc6-4085-92aa-b97ce6abd18c","source":{"id":"ece6f61a-093f-4e2c-ba9d-801d19e6370e","url":"https://forecastingresearch.substack.com/p/how-close-is-recursive-self-improvement","title":"How Close Is Recursive Self-Improvement?"},"verbatim_text":"For instance, no measured part of Anthropic’s AI R&D is fully autonomous. Anthropic also states that “large performance gaps persist when it comes to Claude exercising judgement in choosing goals in both engineering and research.” At OpenAI, AI completed 57% of 2–4-hour tasks with no human intervention in July 2026 (up from 28% in January) and 35% of 8–16-hour tasks (up from 10%).","context":"Evidence from lab reports that autonomy remains partial.","stance":"advances","direction":"for"}],"unplaced_argument_passages_total":1}