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AI 2027

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Claims5
ExaminationsNone
Text74 sections
VersionsOne known
CopiesNone recorded
CorrectionsNone recorded
Facts checked Nov 1, 2026
ReachNo copies recorded
StructureIn 5 claims' maps0 sources downstream across 5 claims
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Text269 passages · 4 marked

No examination yetMarked passage
AI 20270 passages
EN ▾ English EN Español ES Français FR Italiano IT1 passage
About0 passages
April 3rd 20250 passages
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Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean22 passages · 1 marked

(Added Nov 22 2025, to prevent misunderstandings: we don't know exactly when AGI will be built. 2027 was our modal (most likely) year at the time of publication, our medians were somewhat longer . 3 For our latest forecasts, see here .)

Calendar year in which artificial general intelligence is first developedUnassessed

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Published April 3rd 20250 passages
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Mid 2025: Stumbling Agents5 passages
Late 2025: The World’s Most Expensive AI0 passages
OpenBrain is building the biggest datacenters the world has ever seen. 1317 passages
Early 2026: Coding Automation16 passages
Mid 2026: China Wakes Up4 passages
Late 2026: AI Takes Some Jobs3 passages
GLOBAL AI CAPEX1 passage
COST OF OWNERSHIP OF ACTIVE COMPUTE0 passages
KEY METRICS 20260 passages
GLOBAL AI POWER0 passages
38GW0 passages
PEAK POWER0 passages
OPENBRAIN REVENUE1 passage
2026 ANNUAL0 passages
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE1 passage
COST OF OWNERSHIP OF OPENBRAIN'S ACTIVE COMPUTE0 passages
SHARE OF US POWER ON AI0 passages
2.5%0 passages
33 GW OF 1.34TW CAPACITY0 passages
OPENBRAIN COMPUTE COSTS1 passage
2026 ANNUAL0 passages
OPENBRAIN POWER REQUIREMENT0 passages
6GW0 passages
PEAK POWER4 passages · 1 marked

Over the course of 2027, the AIs improve from being able to mostly do the job of an OpenBrain research engineer to eclipsing all humans at all tasks. This represents roughly our median guess, but we think it’s plausible that this happens up to ~5x slower or faster.

Elapsed time, in years, from AI being able to mostly perform frontier AI research-engineer work to AI surpassing humans at all cognitive tasksUnassessed

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January 2027: Agent-2 Never Finishes Learning4 passages
February 2027: China Steals Agent-211 passages
March 2027: Algorithmic Breakthroughs33 passages · 2 marked

According to a recent METR report , the length of coding tasks AIs can handle, their “time horizon”, doubled every 7 months from 2019 - 2024 and every 4 months from 2024-onward. If the trend continues to speed up, by March 2027 AIs could succeed with 80% reliability on software tasks that would take a skilled human years to complete.

Doubling time of the 50%-task-completion time horizon of frontier AI models on METR's software task suite, 2019–2025, in daysUnassessed

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In our timelines forecast we combine this time horizon trend with estimations of the gaps between METR’s tasks and the real world to get a distribution for when superhuman coders will arrive. All forecasters place 2027 as one of the most likely years in which an SC might be developed (added Dec 2025: though as noted in the timelines forecast , adjusting for outside of model factors gave us slightly longer medians, e.g. Eli's was 2030).

Calendar year when an AI company first internally develops an AI that can do any coding task its best engineer can do, faster and cheaperUnassessed

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April 2027: Alignment for Agent-318 passages
May 2027: National Security7 passages
June 2027: Self-improving AI9 passages
July 2027: The Cheap Remote Worker8 passages
August 2027: The Geopolitics of Superintelligence12 passages
September 2027: Agent-4, the Superhuman AI Researcher6 passages
Milestone Date achieved in scenario, racing ending62 passages
It gets caught. 904 passages
October 2027: Government Oversight14 passages
Apr0 passages
20250 passages
Compute0 passages
Currently Exists Emerging Tech Science Fiction0 passages
Approval -25%0 passages
Revenue $8B /yr0 passages
Valuation $413B0 passages
Importance 1%0 passages
Datacenters $308B /yr0 passages
Timeline 20420 passages
2,000 Unreliable Agent copies thinking at 8 x human speed0 passages
AI Capabilities0 passages
Hacking0 passages
Coding0 passages
Politics0 passages
Bioweapons0 passages
Robotics0 passages
Forecasting0 passages
Apr0 passages
20250 passages
Listen to this scenario also available on0 passages
0.5x 0.75x 1x 1.25x 1.5x 2x 2.5x 3x 4x 5x0 passages
0:00 / 3:231 passage
0.5x 0.75x 1x 1.25x 1.5x 2x 2.5x 3x 4x 5x0 passages
Choose Your Ending0 passages
Slowdown Race4 passages

Not found in the text 1

As quoted

Most people, including most experts, seem to have underestimated the pace of AI progress over the past decade.

AI experts underestimated the pace of AI capability progress over the past decade.Unassessed

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AI 2027
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Link
https://ai-2027.com/
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Stored text
91,642 characters, retrieved Nov 1, 2026 · 74 sections, 269 passages
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Versions
One known
Copies
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Corrections
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Facts checked
Nov 1, 2026

History 3

  1. Nov 1, 2026DividedSegmenter · Divided into 343 parts by its own structure
  2. Nov 1, 2026FactsFacts fetcher · Facts looked up
  3. Nov 1, 2026Entered the graphEntered the graph; copy stored