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The simple macroeconomics of AI
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these macroeconomic effects appear non-trivial but modest – no more than a 0.66% increase in total factor productivity (TFP) over 10 years
AI advances will increase US total factor productivity by less than one percent over ten years
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So long as AI's microeconomic effects are driven by cost savings/productivity improvements at the task level, its macroeconomic consequences will be given by a version of Hulten's theorem: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and aggregate productivity gains can be estimated by what fraction of tasks are impacted and average task-level cost savings.
AI's aggregate productivity gains can be estimated, via Hulten's theorem, from task exposure and average task-level cost savings.
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- https://academic.oup.com/economicpolicy/article-abstract/40/121/13/7728473
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