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https://scienceblog.com/t-a-randomized-trial-by-metr-found-that-experienced-developers-completed-real-coding-tasks-19-slower-when-allowed-to-use-ai-tools-yet-afterwards-they-estimated-on-average-that-ai-had-made-them-20-fast/
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A 19% slowdown in this setting is not a universal estimate of AI's effect on coding. It is an estimate from this trial, using these developers, these tasks, these repositories and early-2025 tools.
METR's 2025 AI slowdown finding generalizes to experienced open-source developers beyond its 16 participants.
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