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https://www.nber.org/papers/w33777

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most employers in exposed occupations have adopted chatbot initiatives

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workers report productivity benefits

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new AI-related tasks are widespread

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using difference-indifferences, we estimate precise null effects on earnings and recorded hours at both the worker and workplace levels, ruling out effects larger than 2% two years after the launch of ChatGPT

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employers absorb AI through task reorganization—including new tasks in content generation, AI oversight, and AI integration

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adopters transition into higher-paying occupations where AI chatbots are more relevant, though still too few to move average earnings

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Technological change reshapes work well before it surfaces in earnings or hours.

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  1. Aug 10, 2026Entered the graphEntered the graph; copy stored