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Before he wrote AI 2027, he predicted the world in 2026. How did he do?

Daniel KokotajloDate not recordedOriginal︎ ↗Archived copy

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But AI 2027 wasn’t his first foray into long-form prediction. In August of 2021, Daniel wrote an essay called “ What 2026 Looks Like .” This essay came out before the launch of ChatGPT, let alone the explosion of AI across the global economy. Now that it’s 2026, I thought it was time to evaluate Daniel’s predictions — and it brings me no joy to say that they are frighteningly accurate.

For “What 2026 Looks Like,” that methodology turned out better than I expected overall. I think reality was closer to this fictional story than I think even I expected it to be, and certainly than most people expected it to be.

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unknown
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Daniel Kokotajlo
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Link
https://asteriskmag.substack.com/p/before-he-wrote-ai-2027-he-predicted
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https://web.archive.org/web/20260716070447/https://asteriskmag.substack.com/p/before-he-wrote-ai-2027-he-predicted
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37,691 characters, retrieved Nov 11, 2026 · 34 sections, 142 passages
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Nov 11, 2026

History 3

  1. Nov 11, 2026DividedSegmenter · Divided into 176 parts by its own structure
  2. Nov 11, 2026FactsFacts fetcher · Facts looked up
  3. Nov 11, 2026Entered the graphEntered the graph; copy stored