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Contra Acemoglu on AI
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Multiplying these gets his overall estimate that the "total factor productivity (TFP) effects within the next 10 years should be no more than 0.66% in total"... Multiplying these numbers out is a good starting point, and is certainly [not the whole story: the task-exposure calculation omits channels such as new goods and deepening automation].
AI's aggregate productivity gains can be estimated, via Hulten's theorem, from task exposure and average task-level cost savings.
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