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Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks (v1)
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finding that time horizon has doubled every 212 days with a 95% bootstraped confidence interval 171–249 days
Doubling time of the 50%-task-completion time horizon of frontier AI models on METR's software task suite, 2019–2025, in days
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In particular, we find no evidence of either much slower performance trends, or a plateau, specific to our higher messiness subset.
AI agents’ improvement trends plateau or slow specifically on higher-messiness tasks.
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- Nov 1, 2026Entered the graphEntered the graph; no copy stored