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TopicsMETR Time Horizon Benchmark AI Capability Evaluation Statistics

Spline-based item-response estimates predict METR task time horizons better than its original logistic-in-log-time estimates under cross-validated proper scoring rules.

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Overall, we contribute time-horizon point estimates that perform better under a cross-validated suite of proper scoring rules, as well as diagnostic plots for assessing time horizons

On the estimation and validity of AI time horizons: a statistical look at the METR plotpreprintextraction 0.70

Nguyen, Drew T., Fithian, William · arXiv.org · Oct 8, 2026 · original

Abstract: comparison of spline/IRT estimates against METR's original logistic-in-log-time estimates.

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