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TopicsMETR Time Horizon Benchmark AI Capability Evaluation

METR's fitted curve makes increasing task horizons from 30 minutes to five hours harder than from three to 30 minutes.

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Hence, a time-horizon jump from 3 min to 30 min is much easier than one from 30 min to 5 hours despite the same multiplier of $10 \times$.

On the estimation and validity of AI time horizons: a statistical look at the METR plotpreprintextraction 0.75

Nguyen, Drew T., Fithian, William · arXiv.org · Oct 8, 2026 · original

Abstract, drawn as a consequence of the fitted spline's shape.

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