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TopicsAI Research Automation AI Development Forecasting

In the simplified model, the 99% AI R&D automation date is most sensitive to diminishing returns and automation velocity.

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A basic sensitivity analysis shows that higher beta (diminishing returns) and lower v (automation velocity) make 99% automation happen later, and the other parameters don’t affect things much.

A simpler AI timelines model predicts 99% AI R&D automation in ~2032blog postextraction 0.70

METR Blog · Feb 10, 2026 · original

Sensitivity analysis of the simpler model.

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