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TopicsAI Development Forecasting AI Coding Capability

The AI Futures Model's automated-coder forecast is highly sensitive to its time-horizon doubling-difficulty factor.

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In particular, the “doubling difficulty growth factor”, which measures whether time horizon increases superexponentially, could change the date of automated coder from 2028 to 2049!

A simpler AI timelines model predicts 99% AI R&D automation in ~2032blog postextraction 0.80

METR Blog · Feb 10, 2026 · original

Critique of the AI Futures Model (AIFM).

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Created by extractor · Nov 14, 2026. Every judgment on this page is accompanied by a reasoning trace.