Claims
Search the graph by meaning. Each result carries its current verdict; open one to see its decomposition, provenance, and the reasoning behind the assessment.
KindShowingImportancePrizesTopicDrivers of AI Progress
Claims about the causes of advances in AI capabilities over time, including the relative contributions of computing hardware and compute, algorithms, data, and researcher effort. Excludes forecasts of future AI progress unless they specifically analyze these drivers.
Weak research judgment in AI systems will slow automation of the remaining AI R&D tasks below current-trend extrapolations.
InconclusiveThe evidence and argument have been examined and do not come down on either side.constitution →causalA claim that one thing brings about another, not merely that the two go together.constitution →AI Research AutomationArtificial intelligenceAI Development Forecastingimportance · majorImportance 0.65, from 0 to 1 · major: real consequence within a domain, actively argued. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Non-AI factors likely contributed to Anthropic's capability acceleration in late 2025.
SupportedThe evidence favors the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →causalA claim that one thing brings about another, not merely that the two go together.constitution →AnthropicArtificial intelligenceLLM capability trendsimportance · minorImportance 0.35, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Rate of change of the AI algorithmic-efficiency multiplier in January 2026, in multiplier units per year
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →QuantityA quantity: a value the graph estimates rather than a proposition it affirms or denies. Its estimate stands where a claim's status would.constitution →Artificial intelligenceimportance · notableImportance 0.45, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
AI-assisted research and development caused most of Anthropic's capability acceleration since October 2025.
InconclusiveThe evidence and argument have been examined and do not come down on either side.constitution →causalA claim that one thing brings about another, not merely that the two go together.constitution →AnthropicAI Research Automationimportance · notableImportance 0.55, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Anthropic's AI-attributable AI-capability progress rate in November 2026, relative to its pre-October 2025 rate
≈ 1.60 ×QuantityA quantity: a value the graph estimates rather than a proposition it affirms or denies. Its estimate stands where a claim's status would.constitution →Artificial intelligenceAnthropicAI Research Automationimportance · majorImportance 0.75, from 0 to 1 · major: real consequence within a domain, actively argued. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Much of frontier AI progress comes from automatable experimentation whose pace depends on tools and resources.
SupportedThe evidence favors the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →AI Research AutomationArtificial intelligenceimportance · majorImportance 0.65, from 0 to 1 · major: real consequence within a domain, actively argued. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Share of Anthropic's observed AI-capability acceleration in October 2026 attributable to AI assistance (percent)
≈ 6,500%QuantityA quantity: a value the graph estimates rather than a proposition it affirms or denies. Its estimate stands where a claim's status would.constitution →AI Research AutomationArtificial intelligenceAnthropicimportance · majorImportance 0.70, from 0 to 1 · major: real consequence within a domain, actively argued. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Public measurements cannot identify frontier AI capability progression by compute without strong assumptions.
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →AI Scaling TrendsAI Capability EvaluationAI Lab Transparencyimportance · notableImportance 0.60, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Faster scaling of training compute did not cause Anthropic's capability acceleration since late 2025.
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →causalA claim that one thing brings about another, not merely that the two go together.constitution →AnthropicLLM capability trendsTraining compute trendsimportance · notableImportance 0.60, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Under full recursive AI self-improvement, progress is paced by compute availability or algorithmic efficiency gains.
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →causalA claim that one thing brings about another, not merely that the two go together.constitution →AI Intelligence Explosionimportance · notableImportance 0.55, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Compute-intensive experiments can make simple AI software-R&D models overstate the case for a software singularity.
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →causalA claim that one thing brings about another, not merely that the two go together.constitution →AI Intelligence ExplosionAI Research AutomationArtificial intelligenceimportance · notableImportance 0.55, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Dependence of AI software progress on hardware progress could prevent a software-only singularity.
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →causalA claim that one thing brings about another, not merely that the two go together.constitution →AI Intelligence ExplosionArtificial intelligenceimportance · notableImportance 0.55, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
AI software progress is well described by a semi-endogenous idea-production model with a single stable returns-to-research parameter.
DoubtfulThe evidence weighs against the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Economic growthReturns to Research and DevelopmentAI Scaling Trendsimportance · minorImportance 0.40, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
With hardware fixed, the software-achievable AI capability limit substantially exceeds initial systems that substitute for human cognitive workers.
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Artificial intelligenceAutomation and employmentimportance · notableImportance 0.55, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Holding compute scale fixed makes diminishing returns to AI algorithmic research steeper than when compute grows.
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →causalA claim that one thing brings about another, not merely that the two go together.constitution →AI Scaling Trendsimportance · notableImportance 0.50, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Growth in hardware was the main driver of historical AI software progress, rather than researcher effort.
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →causalA claim that one thing brings about another, not merely that the two go together.constitution →Artificial intelligenceimportance · majorImportance 0.70, from 0 to 1 · major: real consequence within a domain, actively argued. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
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