Claims
Search the graph by meaning. Each result carries its current verdict; open one to see its decomposition, provenance, and the reasoning behind the assessment.
KindShowingImportancePrizesTopicLow-probability risk
Reasoning about, and evidential limits on, very unlikely high-consequence events: rare-event probability claims, tail risks, and how much data or argumentation can bound them. Not about ordinary-frequency or well-measured risks.
The probability of error in a safety argument bounds the confidence it can provide about low-probability risks
SupportedThe evidence favors the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Safety assuranceimportance · notableImportance 0.45, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Counting arguments for AI scheming misuse the principle of indifference.
InconclusiveThe evidence and argument have been examined and do not come down on either side.constitution →evaluativeA judgment of worth or quality against some standard: good, fair, effective.constitution →Alignment Fakingimportance · notableImportance 0.50, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Published LHC black hole risk analyses do not establish that catastrophic risk is negligible.
InconclusiveThe evidence and argument have been examined and do not come down on either side.constitution →evaluativeA judgment of worth or quality against some standard: good, fair, effective.constitution →LHC safetyMicro black holesSafety assuranceimportance · notableImportance 0.45, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Core-damage accidents in commercial nuclear reactors have occurred historically at a rate on the order of one per few thousand reactor-years
VerifiedThe evidence, examined directly, establishes the claim.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Nuclear power safetyProbabilistic risk assessmentimportance · minorImportance 0.35, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Standard statistical methods yield confidence bounds on a system's failure rate from failure-free operational exposure
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Statistical Uncertainty AnalysisSafety assuranceimportance · settledImportance 0.15, from 0 to 1 · settled: uncontested, so low even when much depends on it. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Statistical testing alone cannot demonstrate the ultra-low failure rates required of safety-critical systems
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Safety assuranceimportance · settledImportance 0.20, from 0 to 1 · settled: uncontested, so low even when much depends on it. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Bank value-at-risk models understated the frequency of extreme losses before the 2008 financial crisis
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →2008 financial crisisFinancial EconomicsProbabilistic risk assessmentimportance · settledImportance 0.20, from 0 to 1 · settled: uncontested, so low even when much depends on it. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Pre-Challenger official estimates of Space Shuttle failure risk were far below the realized failure rate
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Space Shuttle programProbabilistic risk assessmentimportance · settledImportance 0.20, from 0 to 1 · settled: uncontested, so low even when much depends on it. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
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