Minerval

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2026-11-14 03:03:31 UTC · previous step · next step

get_claim

Input
{
  "include": [
    "arguments",
    "subclaims",
    "related"
  ],
  "claim_id": "55f89371-8a43-43c1-8dd7-932c350ca7fb"
}
{"claim":{"id":"55f89371-8a43-43c1-8dd7-932c350ca7fb","kind":"claim","canonical_form":"By the end of 2027, a frontier AI model will autonomously train a successor version of itself.","claim_type":"empirical_verifiable","state":"active","decomposition_status":"complete","importance":0.75,"contestation":0.75,"domains":[],"tags":[{"slug":"ai-research-automation","name":"AI Research Automation"},{"slug":"ai-development-forecasting","name":"AI Development Forecasting"},{"slug":"ai-intelligence-explosion","name":"AI Intelligence Explosion"}],"steward_state":"running","stewarded_at":"2026-11-14T03:03:25.856Z","canonical_direction_note":"The affirmative form states the occurrence being forecast, while the source assigns it only a 30% probability and says it does not expect automated AI R&D in 2027.","created_at":"2026-11-14T02:41:53.642Z","updated_at":"2026-11-14T03:03:19.851Z","page_url":"https://minerval.ai/claims/55f89371-8a43-43c1-8dd7-932c350ca7fb"},"assessment":null,"coverage":{"examined":false,"on":[],"note":"No judgment of this node is in force. That is not a finding either way."},"quantity":null,"threshold_of":null,"question":null,"formalization":null,"formalization_pending":null,"formalization_history":[],"verification":null,"lean_checks":[],"lean_checks_total":0,"waiting_messages":[{"trigger":"structure_and_assess","from":"the system","sender_node_id":null,"sent_at":"2026-11-14T02:41:53.688Z","paid":false,"summary":"New claim onboarded. Give it the structure and assessment its importance warrants; a minor or settled claim may need no decomposition."},{"trigger":"mandate_plan","from":"a mandate's plan","sender_node_id":null,"sent_at":"2026-11-14T03:03:19.881Z","paid":true,"summary":"First assessment. The source gives a stated probability for this in May 2026 and its author revised his view in October 2026; both originals are in the graph. What would count as a model autonomously …"}],"requests":[],"requests_total":0,"subclaim_count":0,"instance_count":1,"source_map":null,"related":[],"subclaims":[],"subclaims_assessed":0,"arguments":[],"unplaced_argument_passages":[{"instance_id":"d6e798c9-7850-46a3-9857-2814e9b5a960","source":{"id":"87406e11-4df5-49b3-8558-11e864316894","url":"https://importai.substack.com/p/import-ai-455-automating-ai-research","title":"Import AI 455: AI systems are about to start building themselves."},"verbatim_text":"The answer is that I think AI research contains some requirement for creativity and heterodox insights to move forward - so far, AI systems haven’t yet displayed this in a transformative and major way (though some of the results on accelerating math research are suggestive of this).","context":"Reason given for a lower 2027 probability","stance":"advances","direction":"against"}],"unplaced_argument_passages_total":1}

get_claim_instances

Input
{
  "claim_id": "55f89371-8a43-43c1-8dd7-932c350ca7fb"
}
{
  "claim_id": "55f89371-8a43-43c1-8dd7-932c350ca7fb",
  "total": 1,
  "limit": 20,
  "offset": 0,
  "has_more": false,
  "instances": [
    {
      "id": "35a7ac6e-93c8-4a3c-9a1e-df4412155423",
      "source_id": "87406e11-4df5-49b3-8558-11e864316894",
      "verbatim_text": "If you had to push me for a 2027 probability, I’d say 30%.",
      "context": "Explaining why the author does not expect automated AI R&D in 2027.",
      "stance": "denies",
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "speaker": null,
      "publication": null,
      "source_date": null,
      "link": null,
      "source_title": "Import AI 455: AI systems are about to start building themselves.",
      "source_type": "blog_post",
      "source_url": "https://importai.substack.com/p/import-ai-455-automating-ai-research",
      "source_published_date": null,
      "source_authors": [
        "Jack Clark"
      ],
      "source_publisher": null,
      "source_doi": null,
      "source_interest": null,
      "recorded_by": "extractor",
      "display_rank": null,
      "reading": null,
      "draws_on": [],
      "story": {
        "standing": "untraced",
        "basis": "none",
        "depth": 0,
        "diverges": false,
        "downstream_total": 0
      }
    }
  ]
}