Step 22: tool results

{
  "child_id": "a3a7a95b-f3fb-4cf8-a605-cbe3bee834db",
  "relation": "supports",
  "parent_id": "55f89371-8a43-43c1-8dd7-932c350ca7fb",
  "reasoning": "A large and fast-growing AI share of AI R&D is the trend whose extrapolation underlies forecasts of autonomous successor training.",
  "argument_id": "13212832-045b-46a0-a949-532148246e3f"
}

{
  "child_id": "f5a654f9-9ef3-4144-9869-6bff1c6d9631",
  "relation": "supports",
  "parent_id": "55f89371-8a43-43c1-8dd7-932c350ca7fb",
  "reasoning": "Improvement in choosing research next steps (research taste) is the capability the forecast's author named as the bottleneck; progress on it supports the claim.",
  "argument_id": "13212832-045b-46a0-a949-532148246e3f"
}

{
  "child_id": "d479cf4d-52b6-4260-a3dc-7a2e5a812d42",
  "relation": "contradicts",
  "parent_id": "55f89371-8a43-43c1-8dd7-932c350ca7fb",
  "reasoning": "If humans still supply most research judgment in late 2026, end-to-end autonomous successor training within about thirteen months requires a rapid closing of that gap.",
  "argument_id": "850a64f2-3d1c-4891-9f3b-d52ca77d1bc6"
}

{
  "relation": "contradicts",
  "parent_id": "55f89371-8a43-43c1-8dd7-932c350ca7fb",
  "reasoning": "If developers keep humans in the loop of frontier training runs, a frontier model does not autonomously train its successor even when capable of doing so.",
  "seed_note": "Frontier training runs cost hundreds of millions to billions of dollars, and published frontier safety policies and alignment concerns about recursive self-improvement give developers strong reasons to keep humans approving and monitoring such runs. Competitive pressure and the low cost of oversight relative to the run cut the other way only weakly, though a race could erode it over a longer horizon.",
  "child_text": "Frontier AI developers will retain human oversight of frontier model training after AI can perform it autonomously.",
  "claim_type": "empirical_derived",
  "importance": 0.45,
  "argument_id": "0aba1636-a014-424e-abf1-8ea8d4d5b723",
  "contestation": 0.5,
  "seed_credence": 0.75
}