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Step 32: tool results

2026-11-14 03:07:55 UTC · previous step · next step

evaluate_argument

Input

{
  "verdict": "slight",
  "decisive": false,
  "evaluation": "Granting that AI does a large, growing share of AI R&D and is improving at research taste, end-to-end autonomous successor training by end-2027 follows only if the trends continue through the hardest remaining steps and labs act on the capability at once. The trends measure tasks done under human direction, so even true premises move the dated event only modestly. It rests on [[claim:a3a7a95b-f3fb-4cf8-a605-cbe3bee834db]] and [[claim:f5a654f9-9ef3-4144-9869-6bff1c6d9631]].",
  "argument_id": "13212832-045b-46a0-a949-532148246e3f"
}

{"success":true,"message":"Evaluation recorded for argument \"The argument from the trend in AI R&D automation\": slight."}

evaluate_argument

Input

{
  "verdict": "likely",
  "decisive": false,
  "evaluation": "Granting that humans still supply most research judgment in late 2026, end-to-end autonomy within about thirteen months would need an unusually fast closing of the gap, so the event is unlikely, though steep trends leave real room. It lives on [[claim:d479cf4d-52b6-4260-a3dc-7a2e5a812d42]].",
  "argument_id": "850a64f2-3d1c-4891-9f3b-d52ca77d1bc6"
}

{"success":true,"message":"Evaluation recorded for argument \"The argument from the remaining gap in research judgment\": likely."}

evaluate_argument

Input

{
  "verdict": "likely",
  "decisive": false,
  "evaluation": "Granting that developers keep humans overseeing frontier training after the capability exists, a frontier model would not autonomously train its successor in the sense the words state, at least not soon after capability arrives. It rests on [[claim:4279b6b3-295f-4dee-8793-74610abbe760]], which is unassessed.",
  "argument_id": "0aba1636-a014-424e-abf1-8ea8d4d5b723"
}

{"success":true,"message":"Evaluation recorded for argument \"The argument from capability versus deployment\": likely."}

set_claim_importance

Input

{
  "claim_id": "55f89371-8a43-43c1-8dd7-932c350ca7fb",
  "reasoning": "A dated, widely cited milestone for recursive self-improvement, actively forecast by lab insiders and independent forecasters; consequential for AI policy, but one of several dated variants.",
  "importance": 0.7,
  "contestation": 0.7
}

{"success":true,"message":"Importance of claim 55f89371-8a43-43c1-8dd7-932c350ca7fb set to 0.7. Contestation recorded as 0.7."}