Step 8: tool results

get_claim_instances

{
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}

{
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  "instances": [
    {
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      "source_id": "87406e11-4df5-49b3-8558-11e864316894",
      "verbatim_text": "Given all of this, I think there’s a ~60% chance we see automated AI R&D (where a frontier model is able to autonomously train a successor version of itself) by the end of 2028.",
      "context": "Concluding forecast of the essay, published May 2026. Opening restates it as 'a likely chance (60%+) that no-human-involved AI R&D - an AI system powerful enough that it could plausibly autonomously build its own successor - happens by the end of 2028.'",
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      "source_title": "Import AI 455: AI systems are about to start building themselves.",
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      "source_url": "https://importai.substack.com/p/import-ai-455-automating-ai-research",
      "source_published_date": null,
      "source_authors": [
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      "story": {
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}

search_similar_claims

{
  "limit": 8,
  "query": "independent evaluation of AI agents end-to-end ML research ability benchmark results"
}

{
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  "results": [
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      "kind": "claim",
      "text": "AI agents' success on real-world software tasks judged by maintainer review improves at a similar rate to their benchmark success.",
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      "text": "In InnovationEval, AI agents' research reports sometimes overstated scores by omitting selection of the best result from similar runs.",
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    {
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      "text": "Reliable AI agents will substantially advance AI research by the end of 2025.",
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    },
    {
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      "kind": "claim",
      "text": "Frontier AI agents' performance on long-horizon AI R&D tasks varies substantially across repeated runs.",
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    {
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      "kind": "claim",
      "text": "AI agent evaluations built around narrow, verifiable tasks do not assess open-ended research ability.",
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    {
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