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https://metr.org/blog/2026-02-24-uplift-update/

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METR previously published a paper which found the use of AI tools caused a 20% slowdown in completing tasks among experienced open-source developers, using data from February to June 2025.

Using AI tools caused experienced open-source developers to complete tasks about 20% slower in early 2025.Supported

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we believe that the data from our new experiment gives us an unreliable signal of the current productivity effect of AI tools

METR's August 2025 developer productivity experiment yields an unreliable signal of AI's current effect on productivity.Supported

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we believe it is likely that developers are more sped up from AI tools now — in early 2026 — compared to our estimates from early 2025

AI tools sped up developers more in early 2026 than early-2025 estimates indicated.Supported

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a significant increase in developers choosing not to participate in the study because they do not wish to work without AI, which likely biases downwards our estimate of AI-assisted speedup

Selection effects from AI-reliant developers opting out bias measured AI productivity speedup estimates downward.Supported

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the true speedup could be much higher among the developers and tasks which are selected out of the experiment

Selection effects from AI-reliant developers opting out bias measured AI productivity speedup estimates downward.Supported

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we believe the increase in selection is primarily due to higher expectation of AI-driven uplift by our developers. However the second study also had a lower pay rate, $50/hour instead of $150/hour in the original study, and this also likely contributed to the higher selection.

Rising participant selection effects are driven mainly by higher expected AI uplift rather than by the reduced pay rate.Unassessed

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as we documented in our earlier study those estimates can be quite unreliable

Developers' self-reported estimates of AI-driven productivity speedup are unreliable.Unassessed

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Wider adoption of AI has made it more difficult to measure task-level productivity

Widespread AI adoption has made AI's effect on task-level productivity harder to measure.Supported

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Link: https://metr.org/blog/2026-02-24-uplift-update/
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