Candidate backbones in WIV's possession or access
The argument
The Wuhan Institute of Virology is documented to have held RaTG13, the closest sequenced relative of SARS-CoV-2 at the time of the outbreak, and may also have held undisclosed bat coronaviruses more similar to SARS-CoV-2 than those it published. On this line, one of those viruses could have furnished a starting template close enough to engineer SARS-CoV-2.
Does it work?
- Does it follow?
- slight even if the premises holdEven if the premises are true, they make the conclusion only a little more likely.constitution →
- Do the premises hold?
- 1 unknown1 not separately assessed
Granting both premises as worded, the conclusion follows only weakly. That the WIV held RaTG13 is well established, but RaTG13 at about 96.2 percent is not itself a sufficiently similar backbone, so that premise gives the claim almost nothing. The force of the argument therefore rests on the WIV having held undisclosed, more similar viruses, which is currently unsupported; and even granting it, "more similar than those published" need not reach "similar enough to serve as a template," leaving a further gap. The line is not worthless, since the withheld holdings cannot be excluded, but as it stands it bears on the claim only slightly.
Premises
- UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →The WIV possessed RaTG13, a bat coronavirus that was the closest known relative of SARS-CoV-2 at the time of the outbreak
- UnknownInsufficient information to assess.constitution →The WIV held undisclosed bat coronaviruses more similar to SARS-CoV-2 than those it published
Where it is made
Passages where sources make, criticize or mention this argument. They record where it appears, not how strong it is, and none has precedence over another.
No source is recorded as making it.