Claims
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KindShowingImportancePrizesTopicMETR Time Horizon Benchmark
Claims about METR's Time Horizon benchmark, which estimates AI systems' ability to complete tasks of increasing human-equivalent duration, including its versions, measurements, methodology, and interpretation.
By the end of 2027, AI systems will be able to complete tasks that take a skilled person weeks.
SupportedThe evidence favors the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →AI Development ForecastingAI Agentsimportance · notableImportance 0.60, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
AI task time horizons are too poorly defined to determine whether AI capability growth is superexponential.
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →evaluativeA judgment of worth or quality against some standard: good, fair, effective.constitution →AI Capability EvaluationLLM capability trendsimportance · notableImportance 0.45, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
AI time-horizon estimates should be interpreted alongside diagnostic plots of construct validity, especially as benchmarks add longer tasks.
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →normativeA claim about what should be done or how things ought to be, settled by argument rather than evidence alone.constitution →AI Capability Evaluationimportance · minorImportance 0.35, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Spline-based item-response estimates predict METR task time horizons better than its original logistic-in-log-time estimates under cross-validated proper scoring rules.
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →AI Capability EvaluationStatisticsimportance · minorImportance 0.40, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
METR's fitted curve makes increasing task horizons from 30 minutes to five hours harder than from three to 30 minutes.
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →AI Capability Evaluationimportance · notableImportance 0.60, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Share of 8–16-hour tasks at OpenAI completed by AI without human intervention in July 2026 (%)
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →QuantityA quantity: a value the graph estimates rather than a proposition it affirms or denies. Its estimate stands where a claim's status would.constitution →OpenAIAI AgentsAI Capability Evaluationimportance · minorImportance 0.40, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Share of 2–4-hour tasks at OpenAI completed by AI without human intervention in July 2026 (%)
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →QuantityA quantity: a value the graph estimates rather than a proposition it affirms or denies. Its estimate stands where a claim's status would.constitution →AI AgentsOpenAIAI Agent Reliabilityimportance · minorImportance 0.40, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
METR's fitted AI-difficulty curve is nearly flat for 2–30-minute tasks and near-linear elsewhere.
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →AI Capability Evaluationimportance · notableImportance 0.50, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
A single 50% task-completion horizon inadequately summarizes AI-agent capability for forecasting.
SupportedThe evidence favors the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →evaluativeA judgment of worth or quality against some standard: good, fair, effective.constitution →AI Capability EvaluationAI AgentsAI Development Forecastingimportance · minorImportance 0.40, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Most substantive public quantitative observations of frontier AI capability trends come from METR Time Horizon 1.1.
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →AI Capability EvaluationLLM capability trendsAI Agentsimportance · notableImportance 0.50, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
METR and MMLU version-linking bridges with six or seven common systems have about 80% power for 25% slope departures.
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →AI Capability EvaluationMMLU Benchmarkimportance · minorImportance 0.35, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Across seven systems, METR Time Horizon 1.1 and 1.0 scores are not related by a pure log-scale shift.
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →AI Capability Evaluationimportance · minorImportance 0.40, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
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