Step 24: tool results

{
  "content": "[[claim:a3a7a95b-f3fb-4cf8-a605-cbe3bee834db|AI systems already perform a large and rapidly growing share of AI R&D at frontier labs]], task horizons that agents can complete are doubling within months, and [[claim:f5a654f9-9ef3-4144-9869-6bff1c6d9631|AI systems are improving at choosing next steps in AI research]], the skill most often named as the bottleneck. If these trends continue at their recent pace through 2027, the remaining human contributions to training a successor model are automated within the period, so that a frontier model trains its successor end to end.",
  "argument_id": "13212832-045b-46a0-a949-532148246e3f"
}

{
  "content": "[[claim:d479cf4d-52b6-4260-a3dc-7a2e5a812d42|As of late 2026, humans supply most research judgment in frontier AI R&D]]: no measured part of a leading lab's R&D is fully autonomous, and agents still fail open-ended research tests such as reinventing unseen innovations or writing papers their original authors accept. Autonomously training a frontier successor requires that judgment end to end, and closing the gap within the roughly thirteen months left before the end of 2027 would need a faster jump than the measured trends show.",
  "argument_id": "850a64f2-3d1c-4891-9f3b-d52ca77d1bc6"
}

{
  "content": "The claim requires the event, not only the capability: a frontier model actually training its successor without human involvement. [[claim:4279b6b3-295f-4dee-8793-74610abbe760|Frontier AI developers will retain human oversight of frontier model training after AI can perform it autonomously]], because such runs are very expensive and safety policies call for human control of recursive self-improvement. So even if the capability arrives in 2027, the autonomous event, and public evidence of it, would likely come later.",
  "argument_id": "0aba1636-a014-424e-abf1-8ea8d4d5b723"
}

{
  "kind": "related",
  "claim_id": "55f89371-8a43-43c1-8dd7-932c350ca7fb",
  "reasoning": "Same event with a 2028 deadline; this claim's credence must not exceed the 2028 version's, and both come from the same forecast.",
  "other_claim_id": "5e4c99e3-f697-45fd-b79e-d75cb33a5732"
}