Step 25: assistant

thinking

Calls update_claim_instance

{
  "context": "Clark gives ~60% for automated AI R&D, defined as 'a frontier model is able to autonomously train a successor version of itself', by end of 2028, and 30% for 2027, saying he does not expect it in 2027 because AI research needs creativity AI has not yet shown. Note his definition is about ability; the claim states the event. Revised in October 2026.",
  "speaker": "Jack Clark",
  "claim_id": "55f89371-8a43-43c1-8dd7-932c350ca7fb",
  "reasoning": "Read the source whole: speaker and date were missing; context now records the 30% figure and the ability-versus-event difference. Stance kept as denies because the author assigns it below even odds and says he does not expect it in 2027.",
  "instance_id": "35a7ac6e-93c8-4a3c-9a1e-df4412155423",
  "publication": "Import AI",
  "source_date": "2026-05-04"
}

Calls record_claim_instance

{
  "url": "https://jack-clark.net/2026/10/12/import-ai-476-creativity-and-rsi-worse-than-china-open-weight-models-ai-goes-to-space/",
  "stance": "affirms",
  "context": "Revision of the May 2026 forecast after the TasteVal benchmark reported frontier models exceeding a human-expert baseline on experimental research taste. The statement concerns full RSI becoming possible, a capability, and gives no number; it moves the author's modal year from 2028 to 2027.",
  "speaker": "Jack Clark",
  "claim_id": "55f89371-8a43-43c1-8dd7-932c350ca7fb",
  "confidence": 0.6,
  "publication": "Import AI",
  "source_date": "2026-10-12",
  "source_kind": "blog_post",
  "verbatim_text": "I now think it’s more likely we’ll see full RSI become possible in 2027, whereas before I thought it was more likely in 2028."
}

Calls record_claim_instance

{
  "url": "https://forecastingresearch.substack.com/p/how-close-is-recursive-self-improvement",
  "stance": "mentions",
  "context": "Independent review of company-reported data and public benchmarks on recursive self-improvement; finds AI a highly capable research assistant but humans still supplying most research judgment.",
  "speaker": "Simas Kučinskas and Josh Rosenberg (Forecasting Research Institute)",
  "claim_id": "55f89371-8a43-43c1-8dd7-932c350ca7fb",
  "publication": "Forecasting Research Institute",
  "source_date": "2026-11-10",
  "source_kind": "report",
  "verbatim_text": "Forecasts of full automation of AI R&D range from 2027 (insiders at AI companies and the AI Futures Project’s AI 2027 scenario) to 2052 (the AI Impacts survey of ML researchers)."
}

Calls place_argument_passage

{
  "stance": "advances",
  "reading": "premise_unstated",
  "argument_id": "850a64f2-3d1c-4891-9f3b-d52ca77d1bc6",
  "instance_id": "d6e798c9-7850-46a3-9857-2814e9b5a960"
}