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1 claim

Claims about surveys, polls, or expert-elicitation exercises querying AI researchers for forecasts — dates for human-level AI or other capability milestones, probability distributions, and the reliability, framing, or comparability of such surveys' results. Excludes forecasts derived from models, benchmarks, or compute trends rather than elicited expert opinion.

Surveys of AI researchers give even odds that machines outperform humans at all tasks around mid-century

UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Human-level artificial intelligence Artificial intelligenceimportance · minorImportance 0.35, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →

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