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ShowingImportancePrizesTopicHuman-level artificial intelligence
Claims about the prospect, timeline, feasibility, or likelihood of AI systems matching or exceeding human cognitive performance across a broad range of tasks.
AI capabilities will advance to the point of fully automating most occupations
ContestedCredible evidence or argument exists on multiple sides.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Artificial intelligenceAutomation and employmentimportance · majorImportance 0.75, from 0 to 1 · major: real consequence within a domain, actively argued. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Surveys of AI researchers give even odds that machines outperform humans at all tasks around mid-century
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Artificial intelligenceAI researcher survey forecastsimportance · minorImportance 0.35, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
AI systems will eventually match or exceed human performance on nearly all cognitive tasks
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Artificial intelligenceimportance · majorImportance 0.70, from 0 to 1 · major: real consequence within a domain, actively argued. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
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