Claims
Search the graph by meaning. Each result carries its current verdict; open one to see its decomposition, provenance, and the reasoning behind the assessment.
KindShowingImportancePrizesTopicHuman-level artificial intelligence
Claims about the prospect, timeline, feasibility, or likelihood of AI systems matching or exceeding human cognitive performance across a broad range of tasks.
Scalable oversight can reliably control superintelligent AI systems.
DoubtfulThe evidence weighs against the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →evaluativeA judgment of worth or quality against some standard: good, fair, effective.constitution →AI ControlAI SafetyAI Alignmentimportance · majorImportance 0.75, from 0 to 1 · major: real consequence within a domain, actively argued. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
AI researchers' forecasts of human-level AI moved substantially earlier between the 2022 and 2023 surveys
VerifiedThe evidence, examined directly, establishes the claim.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →AI researcher survey forecastsArtificial intelligenceimportance · minorImportance 0.40, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Growth in AI task-completion time horizons on benchmarks tracks progress toward AI that can automate AI research or most cognitive work.
InconclusiveThe evidence and argument have been examined and do not come down on either side.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →AI Capability EvaluationAI Research AutomationLLM capability trendsimportance · notableImportance 0.60, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
The best frontier AI models are approaching the quality of experienced industry professionals' work deliverables.
SupportedThe evidence favors the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →evaluativeA judgment of worth or quality against some standard: good, fair, effective.constitution →Artificial intelligenceAI Capability Evaluationimportance · majorImportance 0.65, from 0 to 1 · major: real consequence within a domain, actively argued. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
General AI capabilities can be provided by bounded task-specific services without autonomous general agents.
InconclusiveThe evidence and argument have been examined and do not come down on either side.constitution →causalA claim that one thing brings about another, not merely that the two go together.constitution →Artificial intelligenceAI Goal-Directednessimportance · notableImportance 0.45, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Current AI systems have research taste comparable to top human AI researchers.
DoubtfulThe evidence weighs against the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Artificial intelligenceAI Research Automationimportance · notableImportance 0.45, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Elapsed time, in years, from AI being able to mostly perform frontier AI research-engineer work to AI surpassing humans at all cognitive tasks
≈ 3 yearsQuantityA quantity: a value the graph estimates rather than a proposition it affirms or denies. Its estimate stands where a claim's status would.constitution →AI Research AutomationArtificial intelligenceimportance · majorImportance 0.70, from 0 to 1 · major: real consequence within a domain, actively argued. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
The impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will exceed that of the Industrial Revolution.
DoubtfulThe evidence weighs against the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Economic growthimportance · notableImportance 0.50, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
AI can pose catastrophic risks without full general intelligence if it has autonomous agency and decisive hard-power advantage.
SupportedThe evidence favors the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →AI SafetyAI Agentsimportance · minorImportance 0.35, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
AI systems will outperform human researchers across most scientific fields within the next few years.
DoubtfulThe evidence weighs against the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Artificial intelligenceAI Scientific Discoveryimportance · notableImportance 0.55, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
AI systems will match or exceed human expert performance in most knowledge-work occupations by 2029.
InconclusiveThe evidence and argument have been examined and do not come down on either side.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Artificial intelligenceimportance · notableImportance 0.55, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Calendar year when the 2023 ESPAI aggregate forecast assigns a 50% probability to high-level machine intelligence
≈ 2047QuantityA quantity: a value the graph estimates rather than a proposition it affirms or denies. Its estimate stands where a claim's status would.constitution →AI researcher survey forecastsArtificial intelligenceimportance · minorImportance 0.40, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Extrapolating exponential AI capability trends is a sound basis for short AI timelines.
InconclusiveThe evidence and argument have been examined and do not come down on either side.constitution →evaluativeA judgment of worth or quality against some standard: good, fair, effective.constitution →Artificial intelligenceAI Scaling Trendsimportance · majorImportance 0.65, from 0 to 1 · major: real consequence within a domain, actively argued. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Effective training compute required for AI systems capable of automating all economic tasks (FLOP, in 2025-equivalent effective FLOP)
≈ 3,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 trillion eFLOPQuantityA quantity: a value the graph estimates rather than a proposition it affirms or denies. Its estimate stands where a claim's status would.constitution →Artificial intelligenceAI Scaling Trendsimportance · notableImportance 0.60, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
As of 2025–2026, frontier AI systems trained at 10^26–10^27 FLOPs fall short of automating all economic tasks.
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · verifiableA factual claim that could be checked directly against observation or primary records.constitution →Artificial intelligenceAI Scaling Trendsimportance · settledImportance 0.15, from 0 to 1 · settled: uncontested, so low even when much depends on it. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
The AI 2027 scenario depends on a conjunction of individually improbable developments.
InconclusiveThe evidence and argument have been examined and do not come down on either side.constitution →evaluativeA judgment of worth or quality against some standard: good, fair, effective.constitution →Artificial intelligenceimportance · minorImportance 0.40, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Surveyed AI researchers' aggregate forecasts are a reliable guide to when AI will reach human-level performance
DoubtfulThe evidence weighs against the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →evaluativeA judgment of worth or quality against some standard: good, fair, effective.constitution →AI researcher survey forecastsimportance · notableImportance 0.55, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Accuracy on short-range forecasts predicts accuracy on long-range forecasts decades ahead.
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →AI researcher survey forecastsimportance · minorImportance 0.35, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
AI researchers' survey forecasts of human-level AI timing can differ by decades depending on question framing.
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →AI researcher survey forecastsArtificial intelligenceimportance · minorImportance 0.35, from 0 to 1 · minor: narrow or largely settled, cheap to get right. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
AI will eventually be able to automate all labor tasks currently performed by humans.
SupportedThe evidence favors the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Artificial intelligenceimportance · majorImportance 0.75, from 0 to 1 · major: real consequence within a domain, actively argued. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Machines can in principle achieve human-level general intelligence.
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Artificial intelligenceimportance · notableImportance 0.60, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Calendar year in which artificial general intelligence is first developed
≈ 2034QuantityA quantity: a value the graph estimates rather than a proposition it affirms or denies. Its estimate stands where a claim's status would.constitution →Artificial intelligenceimportance · centralImportance 0.85, from 0 to 1 · central: consequential and genuinely contested: a live crux. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Artificial general intelligence will be developed by 2028.
DoubtfulThe evidence weighs against the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Artificial intelligenceimportance · majorImportance 0.75, from 0 to 1 · major: real consequence within a domain, actively argued. Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
The AI 2027 scenario underestimates the time remaining before general intelligence arrives.
SupportedThe evidence favors the claim, but the examination is incomplete or the evidence is indirect.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →Artificial intelligenceimportance · notableImportance 0.60, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
AI researchers' forecasts for when HLMI becomes feasible vary widely.
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →AI researcher survey forecastsimportance · notableImportance 0.45, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Eliciting AI timeline forecasts with fixed years rather than fixed probabilities yields systematically later forecasts.
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →AI researcher survey forecastsArtificial intelligenceimportance · notableImportance 0.45, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
AI researchers' forecasts put a 50% probability of full automation of labor over 60 years after HLMI.
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →AI researcher survey forecastsAutomation and employmentimportance · notableImportance 0.50, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
Calendar year when the 2023 ESPAI aggregate forecast assigns a 10% probability to high-level machine intelligence
UnassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →QuantityA quantity: a value the graph estimates rather than a proposition it affirms or denies. Its estimate stands where a claim's status would.constitution →AI researcher survey forecastsArtificial intelligenceimportance · notableImportance 0.45, from 0 to 1 · notable: a contested point in a live debate (also the default before judging). Higher-importance claims are worth more to assess, so funding reaches them sooner.constitution →
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